February 18 2026

Builder confidence fell for the second straight month in February according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Affordability pressures and elevated construction costs continued to hamper already gloomy sentiment. While the move was modest in outright terms (just one point lower than before), it reinforces the broader malaise seen over the past several years.  The underlying components were mixed but leaned negative. The index measuring current sales conditions held steady at 41 , while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic declined two points to 22 , remaining firmly in “low to very low” territory. Most notably, future sales expectations dropped three points to 46 , extending their move below the breakeven level of 50. “Builders reduced their expectations for future sales as buyers report affordability challenges, which is contributing to declining consumer confidence for the overall economy,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. He added that while most builders continue to offer buyer incentives — including price reductions — many prospective buyers remain on the sidelines. At the same time, remodeling activity has remained comparatively resilient due to limited household mobility. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted that affordability remains a central obstacle early in 2026, arguing that meaningful improvement will require policies aimed at bending the construction cost curve and expanding attainable housing supply. On a more constructive note, he pointed to easing inflation as a potential pathway to lower interest rates for both mortgages and builder financing.

February 13 2026

Existing-home sales pulled back sharply in January, quickly dashing any hopes that December’s year-end rebound brought, as harsh winter weather and still-tight supply conditions weighed on activity. Sales fell 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million, the lowest levels since November 2024. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), transactions were also 4.4% lower than the same time last year, with every region posting both month-over-month and year-over-year declines. “The decrease in sales is disappointing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Perhaps an understatement, especially after the strong showing last month. He added that affordability is nevertheless improving, with wage gains outpacing price growth and mortgage rates running lower than a year ago, though supply remains limited. Inventory dipped slightly from December but stayed above year-ago levels. Total housing inventory registered at 1.22 million units, down 0.8% from the prior month and up 3.4% from January 2025. The months’ supply of unsold homes increased to 3.7 months, up from 3.5 months in December. Price pressures persisted. The median existing-home price for all housing types rose to $396,800, up 0.9% from a year earlier and marking the 31st consecutive month of annual gains. Yun noted that homeowners continue to build substantial equity, estimating that the typical owner has accumulated more than $130,000 in housing wealth since early 2020.

February 11 2026

Mortgage application activity was essentially flat last week, almost impressively so. After much recent volatility, the index is finding a brief moment of stability, and borrowers seem content continue to weigh affordability challenges and wait for clearer movement in rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications decreased 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending February 6, while rising 2% on an unadjusted basis. Purchase demand softened modestly. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped 2% from the prior week, while unadjusted purchase applications increased 4% and were 4% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinance activity posted a small gain. The Refinance Index rose 1% from the previous week and remained 101% higher than a year earlier. Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, described the week as a mixed bag across loan types. While the 30-year fixed rate held steady at 6.21%, conventional applications declined for both purchases and refinances as some borrowers wait for a more meaningful drop in rates or migrate toward other loan types and products. And they appear to be doing just that, as FHA and ARM products saw an increase in apps last week. Kan noted that FHA purchase and refinance applications increased, supported in part by FHA rates that remained roughly 20 basis points below the conforming 30-year fixed rate. He added that borrowers are increasingly turning to FHA loans as affordability pressures persist. At the same time, the ARM share climbed to a seven-week high, with ARM rates running nearly a full percentage point below comparable fixed rates.