March 27 2026

Mortgage application activity declined for the second consecutive week as rising interest rates continued to weigh on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 20. Both major components moved lower. The Refinance Index fell 15% from the previous week, though it remained 52% higher than the same week one year ago.  Purchase activity also softened, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index declining 5% and running 5% above year-ago levels. According to MBA’s Joel Kan, persistently elevated Treasury yields—driven in part by higher oil prices and inflation concerns—pushed mortgage rates higher across the board. The average 30-year fixed rate climbed to its highest level since October 2025, further eroding refinance incentives and dampening purchase demand. The composition of activity shifted further away from refinances. The refinance share of total applications decreased to 49.6% from 52.3% the prior week, while ARM share increased slightly to 8.1% . FHA share rose to 19.7% , VA share declined to 15.9% , and USDA share edged up to 0.5% . Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.43% (from 6.30%) | Points: 0.65 (from 0.63) 15yr Fixed: 5.83% (from 5.66%) | Points: 0.80 (from 0.73) Jumbo 30yr: 6.45% (from 6.39%) | Points: 0.56 (from 0.34) FHA: 6.15% (from 6.08%) | Points: 0.75 (from 0.70) 5/1 ARM: 5.75% (from 5.65%) | Points: 0.68 (from 0.67)

March 20 2026

New home sales took a notable step back in January, reversing much of the prior month’s strength and highlighting the volatility that often defines this data series. The Census Bureau reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 587,000 , down sharply from December’s 712,000 and 11.3% lower than January 2025. For-sale inventory moved slightly higher to 476,000 , up 0.4% from December but still 4.0% below year-ago levels. At the current sales pace, months’ supply jumped to 9.7 months , up from 8.0 months in December and 9.0 months one year ago. The increase reflects the combination of softer demand and relatively steady inventory levels. Prices declined on both a monthly and annual basis. The median sales price fell to $400,500 (-4.5% MoM; -6.8% YoY), while the average price dropped to $499,500 (-5.9% MoM; -3.6% YoY). The pullback suggests a shift in the mix of homes sold, with less upward pressure from higher-priced transactions. Sales (MoM): -17.6% Sales (YoY): -11.3% Inventory (YoY): -4.0% Months’ Supply: 9.7 (up from 8.0 prior month; 9.0 YoY)

March 20 2026

NOTE: the rates discussed in this article are from MBA's weekly survey and pertain to last week.  This week's rates have already moved significantly higher according to our daily data. Mortgage application activity fell sharply last week as rising rates weighed on demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a decrease of 10.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 13. The decline was driven primarily by refinance activity. The Refinance Index dropped 19% from the previous week, though it remained 69% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that conventional refinance applications saw the steepest pullback, as rates moved notably higher over the past two weeks. Purchase demand proved more resilient. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from one week earlier and was 12% higher than the same week one year ago. Gains in FHA and VA purchase activity helped offset flat conventional demand, with improving inventory and slower home price growth continuing to support year-over-year strength. According to Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, mortgage rates moved higher alongside Treasury yields, driven in part by elevated oil prices and broader inflation concerns tied to geopolitical developments. The average 30-year conforming mortgage rate rose to its highest level since December 2025.